Case study · Lotto New Zealand
The Powerball jackpot sequencing model, built with the CEO and CFO and followed every draw.
$100M+estimated additional sales
Powerball jackpots grow until they are struck, and the biggest draws are "Must Be Won" events. How a jackpot is sequenced changes how many people play, and getting it wrong puts the prize fund at risk. It is a high-stakes decision in a regulated business, made on a deadline.
James built the jackpot sequencing model with the CEO, the CFO and the Management Accountant. It ran multi-scenario finances for a jackpot rolling over against being struck, with a live coverage engine estimating the probability of a strike, recalibrated every draw.
He governed every late-stage run of the model, so the people making the call could see what each option would cost and earn before they decided.
Every recommendation for jackpots of $30 million and above was adopted, during his time and for years after. The prize fund was never breached.
The model contributed an estimated $100 million or more in additional sales over several years, including $19.5 million in the first month. A project costing about $200,000 repaid itself roughly 100 times in its first live draw.
This work was done by James Graham as an employee or contractor before Crucible was formed. It is described from public information, and it is not presented as Crucible client work.
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